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Grains & Meats

Following is part of what I received this evening just before market opened. I will try & post more this week but try & reciprocate if any of this helps!
Dewey

As the coronavirus vaccine becomes more available to more Americans in the coming months, hopefully the country can reopen and start getting back to normal and with that crude oil prices should continue to march higher. If people start moving around to levels closer to pre-covid, our ethanol market could bounce back and give a lift to corn prices. We also believe we will see a rising tide lifts all boats with inflation lifting all commodities higher. We also believe that risk for our growing season (weather premium) is not accurately reflected in the sharply discounted new crop contracts. The drought monitor link is posted below. The potential drought in the Midwest should not be ignored and drought could pose major issues during our growing season unless the pattern changes.

This brings us to what positions we’re recommending to protect feed needs for next year in the event of another leg up in the corn market. We initially wanted to look at locking in March 22 corn but the options market is ill-liquid right now so we have scrapped that idea and gone into the more liquid December 21 options. See the recommendation below and give us a call Sunday night or Monday morning if you want to execute this strategy.

Trade Recs

Buy Dec corn 460 call, sell 610 call, sell 400 put for 10 cents or less. ($500 per) The initial margin is $500 and it settled at 9.5 cents

Dec corn futures are at $4.45 so the call you own is only 15-cents out of the money and you have $1.50 of upside potential. The risk is the $4.00 put which is $1.47 under spot futures. Although $4.00 Is not a historically low price, with projected ending stocks approaching just 1.0 billion bushels, being pinned on short $4.00 puts is unlikely to occur

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