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Hogs

Following are some of my brokers closing comments. If you like for me to post some of these or others from time to time, I can but I don't want to be a bother! I am like Farmer ED, "I can talk hogs better than I trade em"
I still have a long position in the Dec contract! Dewey

LEAN HOGS
Cash was not established at noon as packers cited submission problems. Never really understood exactly what that means. Futures traded lower to sharply lower but turned the corner and closed higher. The action was impressive with the Dec closing within 20 points of the session high and 245 points off the session low. Perhaps we’re poised for another gap higher in the morning? Dec and Feb both closed up 70, with the rest of the board 35 higher. Today’s kill was pegged at a hefty 492K. Last Saturday’s kill was revised down by 7K, making last week’s kill only 2.672, down 16K from the prior week and down nearly 1% from last year. The weekly kill is projected to come in just shy of 2.700 million pigs. The late cash was impressive, reported up $3.50. The closing pork showed the cutout down $1.39 at $91.86.

What to Expect?
Today’s outside day and higher close is likely meaningful and signaling that Dec may be ready to move on higher. For reference the index was quoted at 7817, down .37.

The seasonal tendency would be to look for a high in hog futures at the end of Nov. If we move higher into this timeframe, we’ll be looking at some hedging. On Nov 9th the CME will launch their new carcass hog contract. It will take a while for this to build some open interest but overall it should be well received by the industry.

Two to three weeks from now, if the runs don’t pick up, the inventory could fall to below year ago levels for the rest of the year. Assuming we don’t have a stock market crash after the election, I’m projecting that continued strong demand for U.S. pork in the face of shorter than expected supply and lighter than expected production, we’ll see Dec hogs rally into their expiration. Our bullish positions, well-advertised, are listed below. Today’s powerful move higher in the cash hog market, in the face of a sluggish carcass, seems to confirm that packers know there’s no hogs coming. Perhaps we gap higher in the Dec in the morning!!!

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Hogs
Re: Hogs
Post away Dewey -