Rich, I just received this from my broker. These are his end of day comments

Cash was called mixed today. The noon report suggested prices were down .25 to .50. We’ll see if the late report confirms such. Futures closed higher with Oct up 55 and into new recent highs and approaching resistance on the chart at 7735, the highs from last fall. Dec was up 70 with Feb up just 20. The settlement in both Oct and Dec was near the session highs. Today’s kill was pegged at 489K. After three kill days the weekly harvest is up 24K from last week and exactly even with last year. The late cash confirmed that prices were down .50. However, the closing pork report showed the cutout up $2.63 at $95.18. Hams recovered a big part of the losses yesterday on huge volume, over 2.2 million pounds. Bellies are higher as are nearly all retail pork cuts.

What to Expect?
At least for the expiration of the Oct contract, there is no wall of hogs. Weights are increasing; up 1.6 lb and now up .9 from last year. As discussed, this morning, this is a function of other things that don’t include backed up hogs. Remember, there’s nothing normal about 2020. Protein free diets, summer heat, racto-free diets, less DDG feeding which magnified poor quality corn issues all had hand in light weight hogs this summer. The fact that weights are gaining in the fall does not confirm backed up numbers. Why is this such an important point and/or discussion? Because Dec hogs are sharply discount.

If/when resistance at 7740 in the Oct hogs is taken out, there’s nothing, no resistance. A move is 8000 is likely. A move to 8200 is possible. Packers hate this. They hate competing for hogs and endangering their huge margins. Such is life. There is simply no sign of backed up hogs lying around.

Weekly exports will be issued in the morning. I expect them to be solid. Monthly export data came out today. Aug pork exports were up 3.6% from last year.

The higher cutout printed at noon was highlighted by a very high volume of trade in the heavy weight bone-in hams. This was been the focus of weakness this week in the carcass. The index was quoted today at 7750, up .09. The index for tomorrow is expected to inch higher, toward 7773. These numbers should drag futures up and through the resistance levels discussed above. My official liquidation target for ¾ of the position is 7980, just under 300 points away. Anything above 8000 is gravy. Some length should be moved into the Dec. Dec hogs should be good. Note; for the calls that are deep in the money, there’s no time premium any longer. Choose your target and sell futures at your price and then simply exercise the call.