are smelling the carcass of a Bull and not the Traders!! Hopefully tomorrow will be show & tell!!
I am posting part of what I received from my broker awhile ago. He hasn't suggested a futures position in over a month!
Ugly. Four sessions ago Jun LH opened at 7400. They settled tonight at 5980. That’s over 1400 points with most of that occurring in the last three sessions. The latest CME lean hog index stands at 6553. June hogs are nearly 600 under the cash. Worst case scenario is being dialed into the board. Worst case meaning slaughter disruptions in tandem with demand destruction as recession looms large. Some seasoned traders on AG twitter believe we’re near a bottom. The kill for today was pegged at 491K. The weekly kill is projected to come in at 2.635 million pigs, down more than 4% from last week but still up nearly 7% from last year. The late cash report was delayed but expected to be lower. The closing pork showed the carcass down $3.08 at $70.71. Ribs took a big hit as did picnics and bellies. My sources report that bellies are record low. Other sources suggest prices were lower in the fall of 1998. Since I’m not in the office I can’t check my records. I recall that cash hog prices went to 8 cents that fall as hog numbers exceeded capacity to kill. I am not able to recall where bellies were trading at that time. It’s fair to say that bellies are historically low if not record low. At the same time bacon is not discounted, averaging about $5.50/lb at the retail outlet.