What to Expect?
In summary, this week on the sharp rally in the April pigs we secured April $50 puts for our producer/hedgers to hold as protection against slaughter disruptions due to the virus. For our specs we did nothing all week until Friday when we turned buyers of the June 84 calls, spending 90 points. If summer hogs don’t find themselves well above 80 this spring I’ll be completely shocked. What is occurring at retail has never before been experienced. Packers are scrambling….I don’t care what futures are doing. They simply can’t buy and process fast enough.
Guess what, China is going to get their share of pork even as U.S. citizens scramble to the grocery store and find empty shelves. How and why? Because they own the largest pork producer in the country. Look for shipments to China to likely double from the recent pace. The change in the product, the vastly improving tone of the product this week was remarkable. Just a few weeks ago pork loin cuts were trading at record lows. Today they’re at 52-week highs. The power in pork butts has been even more dramatic.
Once the U.S. is past this health threat, and yes we will get past this, I envision a rapid and impressive rally in lean hog futures.
Rich, above is part of what I received Friday afternoon. This morning when I went to McDonalds drive thru I only had one car in front of me but up the street the super market parking lot was running over with customers!
I probably have lost 5 million in commercial truck premium this week in my business so my loss trading hogs doesn't look as bad now!! Our economy is going to take the biggest hit in my life time I believe! This next week I am going to have to figure out Where and How I go from here in my business as it has changed over night!
My trading has been terrible as I was running scared I guess. I have a long position in June hogs and may add to that position on weakness with Monday's trade.
Thanks for your post Rich and hope you & your family stay healthy through all of this. I have no idea about everyone else on the forum!
Dewey PS Slaughter houses are operating tomorrow And Churches are closed, Go figure???