3/12/2020 was up 1.35 and the model projects the component on yesterday's kill will be up between +0.50 and +0.80. The data seems to suggest the decline in the kill rate is beginning to click in and packers are having to bid to get the hogs. Now the question is, "How much damage is the virus doing to demand?" The JJJs are trading premium to the component by +2.83. The model calculates that the packers gross margins are $23.08/ index hog.
With their higher bids, packers were able to purchase 86.4% of the moving average daily purchases of total hogs and 92.4% on the index hogs.