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Hogs

Good morning DH, Following is what I received from Dennis this morning

Cash is called steady. The weekly kill projection continues to rise with the Sat kill now expected to surpass 200,000 pigs. The weekly kill may come in more than 6% larger than last year. Huge production continues to stifle the product despite solid demand. Weekly pork export sales were pegged at 33,700 MT with Mexico by far the largest buyer of U.S. pork last week. China was the second largest buyer followed by Japan and Korea. The sales were up 12% from the 4-week average. Shipments were up 2% from the 4-week average at 43,500 MT with China receiving 17,500 MT of U.S. pork last week. Mexico took 10,800 followed by Japan, Korea and Canada. Obviously the ports in China are operating. Futures are not expected to rally off this report due to the excessive production continuing to enter the pipeline. Reports overnight confirm that ASF continues to spread in China and the hog herd likely continues to shrink. Of course this information is being totally lost, totally buried by the headlines from the COVID-19 situation. Look for increased Chinese buying of U.S. pork. Whether futures rally or not depends on supply in the U.S. If numbers drop off as projected on a seasonal basis we should experience a rally. Sadly, however, producers are going to have to prepare to hedge as this market likely won’t perform as expected in light of recession, global recession

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