MURICO.com Forum

HOGS

What to Expect?
Darkness lies ahead before this market will likely post a real meaningful bottom. Weekly exports were solid at 38,900 MT sales and 42,500 MT of shipments. However, the dark cloud is the serious threat of economic slowdown and possible processing disruption presented by the presence of COVID-19 in the U.S. Just as the situation is coming down in China it appears, suddenly, to be just beginning in the rest of the world. The virus is now present in the Middle East, Europe, South America and in North America. All continents except Antarctica. Experts say this virus spreads easier than SARS did. Given what occurred in China, it’s difficult to imagine anything but bad news, scary headlines in the near term.

Along with a slowing economy the real danger in the livestock is possible disruption in processing. We’re killing and need to kill/process 490,000-495,000 hogs per day and 118,000-122,000 cattle per day. At least hogs are seeing numbers start to decline unlike the cattle. Record low yields in the ten-year notes along with the stock market selloff is the clear signal that the economy will indeed take a hit. It took a solid two months for this virus to run its course in China. Perhaps it will only take about one month in the U.S.

As you can see from above Dennis is very Negative on everything to do with the market. He is probably correct!
Dewey