11/26/14 was down -0.39 to 88.60. That is very much in line with the projection from the Hog Pricing Model. The ZZZs are now premium to the component by 2.33. With packers bidding a bit lower, that may be too much premium. The Purchase Index seems to be in a down trend.

The six-day moving average carcass weight moved up to 215.60#. That is only +1.88# yr/yr. Producers have really liquidated a lot of their heavies and seem to be quite current in their shipments now. It seems to me that this liquidation of heavies inflates the kill rate and has the potential of leading to a decline in the kill rate going forward.

So far this week the kill has been stronger than projected from the last H&P report. I have been looking for the kill to weaken, not move up.

I am without a directional bias and have not made many outright trades in the ZZZs lately. I have now covered all but one of he Feb cattle/hog spreads that I sold and am now wanting to sell again but only if they rally toward the 81.00 level. It is beginning to look like I might just have well stayed in bed today.

Best wishes,

dhm