1/30/2020 was down -0.25 and the model projects the component on yesterday's kill will change in the range of +0.10 to -0.20. Pre-opening show the GGGs will open discount to the component by -1.83.

Yesterday packers purchased 77.0% of the moving average daily purchases of total hogs and 85.2% on the index hogs. So far this week the kill has been 19.22% greater than the same week last year. That makes a pile of pork on the packing house floor that has to be sold and it pushed cutouts down -0.49 yesterday. The model calculates that packers' gross margins have dipped to $17.28/index hog. Not bullish!

Best wishes,

Doc.