12/23/19 will not be available because the USDA web site says there will be no morning reports. From the afternoon reports the model calculated the Purchase Index would be up 0.96 but the afternoon reports are often un-reliable. Additionally there is another element that is being thrown into the mix and that is another category of packer purchases called "Negotiated Formula Hogs". My model is not formated to include them in the calculation thus there is now a built in error in my projections. It appears this new category lowers the CME Lean Hog Index component by -0.03 to -0.06 so it is not a big deal but it IS A FACTOR. Sometimes this category will show up then it fads away for a while. I will NOT re-do my model until it is apparent that this category is going to hang around for a while.

Packers purchases a lot of hogs yesterday by the time the afternoon reports were released - 123.4% of the moving average daily purchases of total hogs ad 105.8% on the Index hogs.

The GGGs settled premium to the component by +11.46. On average over the past nine years the "Gap" has been 2.98. In 2017 it was +17.13 and in 2015 it was -21.92. The Index may take us on a merry ride over the next few weeks. The H&P Report showed a larger inventory of 180# and up hogs than I was expecting at +7.0%. That will turn out to be NO BIG DEAL IF Trump and Xi cut a deal. It is not written in stone that they will reach an accord.

Packers gross margins now stand at $37.04/Index hog.

Still flat the GGGs as out-rights.

Best wishes,

Doc