eased to 215.41#. That is +2.16# yr/yr.

It appears that producers are continuing to get more and more current in their shipments and I'm suspecting this liquidation of heavies is accounting for something like 400K to 600K of the kill since 9-1-14. Even with this inflation of the kill by the liquidation of heavies, the kill is coming up short of projection by something like 250K.

If the total market hog inventory in the last H&P report was correct, then the weight categories were way off with there being a lot more light weight hogs than reported. In that event, there a bunch of those little piglets that will be coming to market in the next month to six-weeks.

On the other hand, if this lower than expected kill rate means the USDA over-stated the inventory of market hogs, then we may see some tightness in the number of hogs available for slaughter.

My guess is that the USDA over-stated the inventory of market hogs and packers will need to keep their bids fairly firm to decide who get to kill the hogs.

I sold another Z/G hog spread this morning. If we get a replay of the front month surging ahead of the second month like we have seen for the past 6-months or so, I may live to regret that sale. I'm not regretting covering a short cattle/hog spread at 78.525, though.

Best wishes,

dhm