11/18/19 DID IN FACT flip back today after the huge negotiated hog kill trashed it from Friday's kill. Today the component was up +1.32 to 60.17. The ZZZs are now trading premium to the component by +2.13. The model calculates that packers' gross margins are $64.39/index hog. Packers are doing well now. Producers?? Not so well.

The six-day moving average carcass weight eased to 215.1.7#. That is +2.20# yr/yr. Index hogs were up slightly at 215.27#. Packer hogs are +0.22# heavier than the non-packer hogs.

This morning I emptied my boat of short V/Z spreads and have now piled on a bunch of long V/Z spreads. On average over the past nine years the V/Z spread has gone to cash settlement at 6.13. The highest it has settled to cash was 14.62 in 2014 and the lowest was -6.05 in 2019. On average over the past nine years during the last 260-days the spread has traded at +5.01. We are now 330-days from cash settlement and I do not have a comparison for with other years on this date.

Best wishes,

Doc