11/11/19 was up +0.08, which, in my mind, a very paltry amount in view of the fact that primal cuts jumped +3.67 raising the calculated gross packers' margins on index hogs to $59.71. I guess packers have the upper-hand right now and they are really taking it to the independent producers of negotiated hogs - perhaps this will cause some of them to exit the hog business. Packers seem to be expanding their production capability and that will take up the slack.

Yesterday packers purchased 113.6% of the moving daily average purchases of total hogs and 86.0% on the index hogs.

Now that the Purchase Index has turned up and the primal cuts are catching a strong bid, it renews my confidence that we have in fact posted the seasonality low for this year and we are now back searching for next seasonality high. "The Market" is projecting it will occur about the time the NNNs go to cash settlement and will be in the 92 to 93 range. The timing seems to be in harmony with when the seasonality high is usually posted but I think there is a good chance that it will be quite a bit higher than "The Market" is currently projecting so I will continue to buy summer futures on dips and sell rallies and all the while keep a few long ones on my boat waiting for a significant move up. Yesterday I bought a few G/J spreads and today someone came along and met my profit objective so I was able to make a quick trip to the bank this morning.

Best wishes,

Doc