11/7/19 was down -0.22 and the model projects the com ponent on yesterday's kill will drop between -0.30 and -0.60. The Purchase Index posted a bit higher numbers for a couple of days and I thought perhaps there was a bottom being formed. Maybe we will have to wait until the kill lightens up a bit after Thanksgiving, that is if we can believe the last H&P Report.
With their lower bids packers were able to purchase 82.5% of the moving daily average of total purchases and 89.0%. on the index hogs. Those are fairly typical for a Thursday.
We are continuing to produce far more pork than the domestic market demands. World pork supplies are not great so once we get through the trade war, there is a good chance that pork prices in the US will move up a notch. Pork prices in China are much higher than they are here. We are still looking for the seasonality high and down the road a ways we should see a new Hog Cycle high. Somewhere between 2021 and 2025 China should have their ASF problem solved and the next Hog Cycle trough could be mighty painful but that is several years down the road..