The CME Lean Hog Index component on the kill for -

11/6/19 was up +0.10 to 60.24. The ZZZs are now trading premium to the component by +3.96.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 214.55#. That is +1.92# yr/yr. Index hogs were unchanged at 213.79#. Packer hogs are -0.19# lighter than the non-packer hogs. I keep watching and wondering if the fact that packers are keeping very current in their shipments is an indicator that packers are going to be lowing their bids and are shipping their hogs in front of lower hog prices.

When the hog market opened this morning, the "Bigger Big Dogs" called the bluff on the "Big Dogs" and the pre-opening limit evaporated into thin air in a hurry. The fact remains, though, that we are most likely in the chase for the next seasonality high. If history repeats itself, the seasonality high will come about the first of July. Between now and then we are very likely going to be in for an inordinate amount of volatility that could at anytime make a sharp spike higher if the Chinese markets open up for imports. On the other hand, a huge dip could occur if the ASF virus were to show up in the USA and serious control measures were implemented to fight the disease.

As Blind Hog said, "Yous pays ur money and takes ur chances!"

Best wises,