11/6/19 was UP +0.61 and the model projects the component on yesterday's kill will be down between -0.05 and -0.35 as packers continue to work through their inventory of less expensive hogs. It looks like yesterday afternoon packers decided to share some of their new-found wealth with the producers. This morning some "Big Dogs" are on the prowl suggesting that packers will be sharing more with producers and to this end they are bidding the ZZZs, GGGs and JJJs limit in the pre-opening.
The hog market is unique in that there is ALWAYS an annual price high and a low. It is because of the biology of hog reproduction that this occurs. For some time now the data has been quite consistent in suggesting that the seasonality low was hit on 9/24/19 when the CME Lean Hog Index dropped to 54.67. Just as surely as the sun comes up in the morning, there will be a seasonality "High" coming down the pike. On average this occurs about the first of July. The market is now saying it will happen about the time the NNNs go to cash settlement and it will be in he range of 91.50.
In addition to the seasonality high, we are also in the chase looking for the next Hog Cycle crest. This is a bit more difficult to pin-point. Considering the possibility that a world-wide shortage of pork may be developing, the next Hog Cycle crest could match the last one - but, "When?''
I have chosen to pile some long summer futures on my boat and am planning on HOLDING-ON-FOR-DEAR-LIFE. Yesterday I piled two more QdQQs on as scalpers. So far flipping calendar spreads has kept me from getting hurt too badly.