11/21/14 was up +$0.23 and the model projects that the CME Index component on the 11-21-14 kill will move up between +0.10 and +0.40. Packers made a very large purchase Friday at 132.2% of the moving average daily purchases. The little bump-up in their bids really sprung loose a bunch of hogs.

I'm wondering if there are others tracking the hog market seeing the possibility that the USDA significantly over-stated the number of market hogs at 9/1/14. The kill since then is just not measuring up to the projected kill from the last H&P Report. It is beginning to look like I missed the boat on the ZZZs. I was wanting to get long below the 90.00 level and thought I might be able to this morning.

WRONG!

All I'm doing is looking at the wake as the boat heads out to sea!

Oh! Well!

At least the short Feb cattle hog spread is letting me scale out of some of those trades. Now if they will "Pop" a little, I will scale back in the short side again. I still have a handful left in case the slope gets slippery and we see more downhill movement.

Best wishes,

dhm