10/25/19 was down -0.77 and the model projects the component on the Friday kill will drop between -0.45 and -0.75. We are still in a down-trend. The ZZZs are trading discount to the component by -0.55.
Generally the seasonality low in the CME Lean Hog Index shows up about the time the ZZZs go to cash settlement. That will probably not be the case this year;rather I am expecting the low to be the 54.67 set on 9/24/19 and we are now searching for the seasonality high. The market is currently projecting the next seasonality high to be near 90 in the summer of 2020. Using the price of pork in China as a base line, the model is projecting the seasonality high could reach the 100 to 105 level in the summer of 2020 so I will keep righ on HODLing some QQQs and will buy dips and sell rallies to scalp a few MMMs, NNNs and QQQs while loading and unloading my boat with calendar spreads. This morning I unloaded some short V/Zs and loaded a pair of Q/Vs.