MURICO.com Forum

Hogs by Dennis Smith

Cash was higher yesterday and will likely be higher again today. The pork edged higher yesterday. Pork loins are now priced above butts for the first time in months. Futures volume yesterday was only 39,500 with open interest up 1,600. Oct went off the board so the Dec is now the front month. China is in the news again today. Pork prices surged 69% in Sep and this is driving the consumer price index to a 6-year high. The CPI was up 3% and now bumping up against the high end of the government target. This form of government knows that food price inflation, if left unchecked, is their biggest threat to preserving their form of government. They cannot and will not allow this to continue. Cost, money is no longer an object. In tandem with this information are stories by CNBC that the Chinese have recently booked 700,000 MT of pork and 700,000 MT of sorghum. They indicated these purchases were made based upon demand which appears to give soybeans a slap in the face. Weekly export data shows the Chinese have 308,000 MT of pork on the books for this year and 135,000 MT for next year. Total U.S. pork export commitments stand at 970,000 MT. So were talking about significant, very significant tonnage here. Well be looking to buy Dec hogs on a test of last Thursdays low.

Had orders in on open to buy Z @68.40, have since changed to 69.15 and buy M @ 92.10, since changed to 93.00. I did not keep the M's from yesterday but did a day trade with them. So far am enjoying today's market action.

Dewey