9/30/19 was up +0.31 and the model projects the component on yesterday's kill will move up between +0.15 and +0.45. An uptrend seems to be firmly established making the CME Lean Hog Index of 54.67 posted on 9/24/19 look like the probable seasonality low for this year. The VVVs settled premium to the component by +8.72. The model calculates that the component will need to gain an average of +0.83 per day to close that "Gap". The index generally does not post gains that large this time of the year. The most it has gained during this time period over the past seven years was 5.76 in 2012. In 2013 it actually lost -5.61. Yesterday I unloaded some of the short VVVs piled on the deck of my boat. Obviously I should have cleared the decks and then reloaded but I didn't know that at the time.

By the time the afternoon reports were released, packers had purchased 100.7% of the moving daily purchases of total hogs and 118.7% on the Index hogs. The model calculates that packers' gross margins have moved up to $36.14/Index hog. That may be enough to keep packers competing to see who gets to kill the hogs.

. Best wishes,

Doc