Well Doc today was a very good day for me! Today is the last day of the month and even though I did not close any trades out my account sure looks better at the end of day.

I am sending some stats & comments from Jim Long following here if they post -

The U.S.D.A. inventory of market hogs on September 1st has set a new record for market hogs in U.S. inventory. The litter size of 11.11 is also a new record. No doubt no shortage of pigs.

A couple points - the under 50 lb. category is only 2% higher than a year ago and it’s interesting that less sows farrowed last quarter compared to a year ago despite a larger breeding herd.

We expect the lower farrowing numbers (-1%) despite the larger breeding herd (+2%) is due to the chlamydia problems that have spread in gilts sold to producers. The problem has impacted gilts not coming into heat affecting farrowing rate of the total breeding herd. It’s a perverse form of supply management using chlamydia gilts to cut production.

If we take the Pig Crop over the last 12 months (Sept. 1st to Aug. 31st) of 136,987 million and divide by 6,320 million kept for breeding (as of Sept 1st 2018), it’s 21.67 pigs per breeding kept.
An interesting number of 21.67. Bell curve it and it’s not hard to see not many herds getting 30 pigs despite coffee shop talk.

The litter size increase to 11.11 is in our opinion been aided by the relative quiet disease front. We do not believe the instances of PRRS has been as great as in some other times in USA.

The breeding herd gained 21,000 from June 1st; an increase but not of great significance.
In our opinion the U.S. breeding herd will see only incremental increases in the near future, as a reflection of the lack of current profitability.

The Sept. 1st, U.S. market hog inventory increased 2.5 million head year over year. A significant number. The billion dollar question is pork exports. The U.S. inventory is up 2.5 million - Chinese is down in the 200 million head range. Quite the difference. The ASF issue is real.