9/27/19 was up +0.77 to 56.73. The VVVs are trading premium to the component by +7.87 and the model calculates the component will need to gain an average of +0.75 per day to close that "Gap". We generally do not see that much of a rally this time of the year but it could happen in China throws open the flood gate and lets American pork start rolling in. The model calculates that Packers' gross margins' are $35.53 per index hog. They surely must be feeling better.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 211.92#. That is +2.29# yr/yr. Index hogs were steady at 211.49#. Packer hogs were lighter than the non-packer hogs by -0.62#. Packers ran a significantly larger number of their hogs through their plants that usual on the weekend.

It looks like the seasonality low was posted on 9/24/19 at 54.67. Generally the low is posted about the time the ZZZs go to cash settlement so there may be another down move coming a bit later this fall.

Best wishes,

Doc