11/20/14 was with the projected range at -0.08 putting the component at 88.82, The weakness in the ZZZs closes the "Gap" to 1.56. I'm looking for a dip to the 89.80 level to buy the ZZZs. It probably won't happen today but that's all right because I would just as soon go into the weekend spread rather than having an out-right position.

The six-day moving average carcass weight was firm again today at 215.63#. That is +2.77# yr/yr. All of the increase in weight came from packer hogs. Non-packer hog weights were unchanged. As of late the percentage of the kill made up of packer hogs has been higher than we had been seeing.

If packers had greater PED virus losses as I suspect, then they seem to have the problem behind them now and their production is coming in at a more or less normal rate.

I scaled back onto a short LEG5/HEG5 spread at 80.975. Looking at my screen, I obviously was not patient enough but should have held out for another point. It has been my experience that I cannot predict what the market will do with very much accuracy. Further more, I think most other traders are in a similar predicament. The best we can hope for is to make our best guess then follow sound money management principles so we can come back and play the game again tomorrow.

Best wishes,

dhm