Good afternoon DH, and thanks for your continued information on your forum.

Today was another busy day for my commod account, not as crazy as the other day but it was a good day all in all. Got out of all my longs early in day and bought almost all of them back before day was over. I am playing this market from the long side hoping I don't swamp my boat in process! Following is some of what I received from my broker awhile ago--

What to Expect?
Expanded limits go into effect for Wednesday, 450 points up or down. The final day of the Goldman could not be executed. Try again tomorrow. Two major news items surfaced today. First, S. Korea reported their first ever case of ASF. Second, the UK government indicated they anticipate an outbreak of ASF in their country over the next 12 months. The virus continues to spread. As a U.S. pork producer, highly recommend some kind of protection.

Looking closer at S. Korea, they’re our 5th largest pork export customer. Pork imports represent one third of their consumption. The pig population is estimated at about 11 million. Similar to China, every pig that dies or is culled is an additional hog that will need to be imported into the country. This is not entirely accurate because of substitution with beef and poultry but you know what I mean. Large or increasing S. Korean buying would drive pork butts sharply higher.

Please don’t expect me to explain each of these moves. It’s impossible. This has been going on since April. Bullish long term plays in the options market is the only way to approach this market. Producers need to be willing to sell deep out of the money calls and hedge production for 30 to 90 days out. We’re not hedging anything for next year, fully convinced the acute pork shortage will be forcing prices sharply higher at some point late this year or next year

I believe we all need some outstanding Good Luck in trading this market!
Dewey