MURICO.com Forum

Due to packer submission problems, the - - -

the final Purchase Index for 9/16/19 will be late. Looking at the afternoon reports, I see producers are willing sellers as packers keep lowering their bids day-after-day. My best guess is that the final Purchase Index for yesterday will be down more than the -0.33 that we saw on the afternoon Purchase Index and the component on yesterday's kill will be on the low side of the projected range.

We ARE still looking for the seasonality low in the CME Lean Hog INdex. It could arrive any day but it will NOT be today and probably not tomorrow. The itncreased demand implied by the strong futures market Thursday and Friday needs to become pork sales by the packers before they will start throwing big money at hogs. Packers' gross margins on Index hogs is now firmly in the black at $23.14/Index hog but a significant portion of that improvement has come about by packers cutting their bid prices and letting the producers suffer especially the producers of negotiated hogs. A bunch of them will most likely exit the hog business.

Best wishes,

Doc