China or some Chinese related entity or entities bought pork limit on Thursday and THEN announced they would lift some of the tariffs. The buying carried over into Friday and we may now be off to the races looking for the next Hog Cycle crest but first we need to post this year's seasonality low.

Here is the way I see the CME Lean Hog Index:

Last Hog Cycle crest posted on 7/16/14 at 134.17

Last seasonality and Hog Cycle lows set on 9/3/18 at 45.30

Assume last seasonality was posted on 8/2/19 at 84.66 but I suppose a roaring bull could take that out this fall.

The last component on the CME Lean Hog INdex was 59.52 on the kill for 9/12/19. The model projects the component on the 9/13/19 kill will drop between -0.60 and -0.90. I will be watching to see if we get another early seasonality low next week. Generally the seasonality low shows up about the time the ZZZs go to cash settlement but it sometimes comes around early as we saw in 2018 when the seasonality low was posted on 9/3/18 at 45.30.

Once the seasonality low is confirmed, the journey to find the next Hog Cycle crest begins and what a journey it might be - - if - - China is in fact starting to lift the tariffs. We know the CME Lean Hog Index can hit 134.17 because it has been there before. We know that China is a totalitarian regime that can impose price ceilings, rationing and as yet un-announced techniques to control prices and inflation.

And so we wait and watch for any clues that might tell us what is happening!

Best wishes,

Doc