9/9/19 was down -0.46 and the model projects the component on yesterday's kill will drop between -0.65 and -0.95. The VVVs settled discount to the component by -0.80.

With their lower bids packers purchased 128.0% of the moving average daily purchases of total hogs and 127.5% on the Index hogs. Those are very large numbers for a Monday and I am wondering, "Have producers capitulated and are now anxious to quickly sell hogs and whatever bid they can get from packers?"

Producers of negotiated hogs are really taking a beating.

The cutouts dipped another -1.41 Monday and that dropped packers' gross margins on Index hogs to $18.12/hog. That is far better than the red numbers seen a couple of weeks ago but hardly sufficient to have packers jumping up and down for joy and throwing a lot more money at hogs. Lower packer bids will likely be on the menu for tomorrow.

Best wishes,

Doc