9/6/19 was down -1.04 and the model projects the component on Friday's kill will drop between -0.85 and -1.15. The VVVs are now trading premium to the component by +0.03 so there is really no "Gap". When the 2.1 report comes out shortly and the component tumbles a little, the VVVs will go premium to the component.

With their lower bids,packers were able to purchase 139.1% of the moving daily average purchases of total hogs and 150.0% on the Index hogs. I look at these numbers and I wonder, "Are producers beginning to run scared and they are willing to move the hogs out quickly at lower and lower prices?" Carcass weights seem to be going up and that may indicate hogs are being backed-up. This is NOT a good time of the year for hogs to get backed-up!

The VVVs seem to be enjoying a little bullish euphoria which is hard for me to understand with weights going up, kill at a high level and primal cuts only So! So!. Last week I was short the VVVs and when they went limit down Friday, I covered half of them. Now I have piled another short VVV pig on my boat and will add more if they keep going up.

Best wishes,

Doc