8/22/19 CRASHED -1.48 to 75.23. The VVVs are now trading discount to the component by -15.93. Packers are continuing to have difficulty moving all the pork they are producing and it is killing packers' margins. If they can't sell the product, they have to lower their bid prices.

The six-day moving average carcass weights firmed to 208.68#. That is +0.49# yr/yr. Index hog were also a bit heavier at 208.86#. Packer hogs are lighter than the-non-packer hogs by -1.06#.

Yesterday I started piling short VVVs onto my boat and got a couple more on this morning before the the downward pressure really built. As I studied the data last night, it looked like trades might push the VVVs limit down in front of the weekend so I wanted to get short in front of the crowd. I also reduced the number of summer futures on my boat. I am still bullish hogs long term but decided to stand aside some of the summer futures with the idea of buying them back at a lower price. The summer futures have taken me to school. Fortunately the calendar spreads and the front month futures have cushioned the blow a little. Today my profit target was hit on a couple of short K/M spreads and a long Q/V spread.

Best wishes,

Doc