8/14/19 was down -0.34 to 79.17 which is the other 50% of the cash settlement for the QQQs. The model is showing a cash settlement index of 79.34 so no damage was done going to cash settlement short the QQQs but precious few copper ended up making there way to my accounts. The VVVs settled discount to the component by -14.17. It will take a very strong ITZ ten point down move in the component to tame that "Gap". The data seems to be suggesting that we are definitely in the downhill chase looking for the seasonality "Trough" now that we apparent;y have the seasonality "Crest" at 84.68 posted on 8/2/19. The market is saying we will hit the "Trough" about the time that the ZZZs go to cash settlement and it will be in the the 63 to 64 range.

The ASF virus continues to spread across Asia, Europe and Africa. It is uncertain whether geo-political issues will keep exports of American pork from benefiting from the impending world wide shortage of pork that is developing.

The six-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 208.25#. That is +0.15# yr/yr. Index hogs were also a bit heavier at 208.23#. Packer hogs are lighter than non-packer hogs by -0.56#. Packers are continuing to own a large part of the kill mix at 42.5% on yesterday's kill.

Best wishes,

Doc