Good evening to all,

I had orders in today but no fills on anything! Below is part of what I got from Dennis awhile ago

What to Expect?
DID WE JUST MISS A HEDGING OPPORTUNITY? Imo the answer is no…we’re still expecting futures to take out the resistance levels defined by today’s highs. China was a buyer of U.S. pork last week, purchasing 10,200 MT, their largest purchase in a long time. Funny, it appears just days after the Chinese Ag Minister said China would not be buying any more U.S. commodities, a purchase appears to have occurred. Shipments were solid at 26,400 MT.

WH Group reported very poor six month profits, down nearly 17%. They cited the overlay pressure of the wide-spread ASF and unstable geopolitical situation. They went on to state the greatest challenge in China is the continuously soaring hog prices as a result of the growing supply shortage which is expected to push down their packaged meat margins. They also stated their greatest challenge in the U.S. operations is the on-going over-abundant supply of meats which will suppress their fresh pork profitability. They are not going to say it outright (READ BETWEEN THE LINES) but my interpretation of these statements is that Smithfield pork, large amounts of Smithfield pork will be heading to China.

I remain bullish. Given a strong close above resistance and another leg upward should develop. Eventually we’ll re-establish hedges. Our spec plays are already established as we’re holding bullish June futures and options. The seasonal is calling for a low, a bottom over the next couple of weeks followed by a sharp move upward into the middle of Sep. The move upward into the middle of Sep is the one we’d like to lean into rather aggressively in both the Oct and Dec.