11/18/14 was up 0.49 to 89.00. That was a bit bigger jump than the Hog Pricing Model was projecting. That cuts the premium of ZZZs over the component to 2.58.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight dipped a little to 215.36# which is only +2.88# year-over-year. My assessment of the situation is that producers have really been liquidating their heavies. Liquidating these heavies could account for 400K to 500K of the kill since 9-1-14. The lower carcass weight was almost totally the result of non-packer hogs coming in at a lighter weight.

The percentage of hogs killed that were packer hogs has been holding in the 32% to 33% range lately. This is about what is generally seen. If packers did lose a few more piglets than non-packers, it appears that they have now worked through that problem and are back to about normal.

This morning I have only been able to pull-off one scalping trade from the long side and its profit was very small. I am now waiting for another dip because I like the long side better right now. Spreads have been moving a little and I have taken profits on some and made a round-trip on a long K/M spread. I don't often get to do that with a K/M spread. I have one of them that has been hanging around since 10/13/14.

Best wishes,

dhm