8/12/19 was down -1.37 and the model projects the component on yesterday's kill will drop between -1.10 and -1.40. Packers have decided they are going to quickly recover from the red margins they had a few weeks ago. The QQQs are now trading discount to the component by -2.48. The model calculates the component will need to drop an average of -1.01 to close the "Gap".

Apparently the producers did not like the way packers took the air out of their bids because they only sold 83.4% of the daily moving average of total hogs and 84.5% on the Index hogs.

The 84.68 in the CME Lean Hog Index hit on 8/2/19 is looking like the seasonality high for this year and we are off to he races looking for the "Trough" for this seasonality. The market is now saying we will get it about the time the ZZZs go to cash settlement and it will be in the 64 range. Maybe the market is right and maybe the market is wrong.

Best wishes,

Doc