11/18/14 was UP +$0.17 AND the model projects that the component on the 11-18-14 kill will move up slightly in the range of +0.05 to +0.35.

Even though packers kept their bids firm yesterday, they only purchased 82.9% of the moving average daily purchases. The declining carcass weights and the mildly weaker than projected kill rate makes me think that the USDA may have mildly over-stated the producers inventory of market hogs in the last H&P Report.

Even though carcass weights are mildly above last year, the volume of pork produced last week was down 4.3% from the same week last year. That was enough shrinkage in pork production to cause cut outs to tack on 1.80 for the week from last Monday, 11/10/14, to this Monday 11/17/14.

I think traders have the jitters over the price of hogs and I am going to try to see if I can pull off some scalps in the ZZZs today. My preference is to buy dips and sell rallies today.

Best wishes,

dhm