8/6/19 was down -0.65 to 83.13. The QQQs are trading discount to the component by -5.56. The model calculates that the component will need to drop an average of -0.97 per day to close the "Gap". It has declined an average of -0.70 over the past two-days.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight eased to 208.20#. That is -0.11# yr/yr.. Index hogs were also lighter at 208.23#. Packer hogs are now lighter than the non-packer hogs by -0.91#. Producers seem to have become very current in their shipments.

It appears to me that the CME Lean Hog Index posted the seasonality high for this year at 84.66 on 8/2/19 and we are now heading toward the seasonality low. The market has it pegged at 63.40 when the ZZZs go to cash settlement. There is very little indication when we will see the crest to this Hog Cycle. The last crest was posted on 7/16/14 at 134.7.

Best wishes,

Doc