8/2/19 was down -0.29 to 84.53. The QQQs settled discount to the component by -6.68. The model calculates that the component will need to drop -0.89 per day for the next 8-days. If the component drops an average of -0.29 per day like we saw today, the cash settlement index for the QQQs will be 82.34. Obviously I don't know where the QQQs will go to cash settlement but the numbers seem to be tilted in favor of going to cash settlement long the QQQs especially since the cut outs were up +1.49 today.208.70#.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight was steady today at 208.70#. That is +0.15# yr/yr. Index hogs were lower at 208.58#. Packer hogs were +0.08# heavier than non-packer hogs.

A seasonality high of 84.68 was set on 8/2/19. It was not much higher but it was higher and now I will watch to see if we head lower or whether we will creep a bit higher. "The Market" is now saying that the seasonality low will be hit about the time the ZZZs go to cash settlement in the 62.20 range.

Best wishes,

Doc