MURICO.com Forum

The afternoon Purchase Index for - - -

8/1/19 was up +0.14 and the model projects the component on yesterday's kill will be up between +0.30 and +0.60. If the component makes a move up like that it will post a new "Crest" to this seasonality cycle taking out the previous one set on 5/17/19 at 84.59. Even if we get a new seasonality "Crest", it may be short-lived in view of the fact that the President has now slapped another 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese imports. Pork production is at a high level and to move it, packers are going to need the export market.

Hog futures did not like this news yesterday and responded with another leg down move.

With their mildly firm bids, packers purchased 86.2% of the daily moving average purchases of total hogs and 94.3% on the index hogs. The kill this week is coming in just about as projected from the last H&P report.

Packers were able sell pork yesterday at +0.24 over the previous day. That price level may come under pressure if the Chinese are spooked by the tariff increase.

Best wishesa,

Doc