7/29/19 was up 1.80 to 83.00. The QQQs are now trading dicount to the component by -0.25. The "Gap" really evaporated in a hurry. Now to the waiting game is on to see if the up-trend in the CME Lean Hog Index continues or whether we now begin the fall down-hill run. I had been starting to think that the seasonality high might be set before the QQQs go to cash settlement. Currently the seasonality high is 84.59 posted on 5/18/19. With the component now at 83.00, there is a chance that we get a couple more UP days before heading lower and that could be the seasonality high.

The six-day moving average carcass weight eased to 208.82#. That is +1.48# yr/yr. Index hogs were also lighter at 208.94#. Packer hogs were lighter than non-packer hogs by -0.05#. Packer hogs still comprise about 40% of the kill. Packers have really been vertically integrating their operations over the past year.

Today I scalped some QQQs in both the 19 and 20s as well as flipping a few calendar spreads but even so, my margin will have taken a hit.

Best wishes,

Doc