7/26/19 WAS UP +2.45. THAT'S A BIG DEAL! The model projects the component on yesterday's kill will be up between +1.20 and +1.50. More than likely there will be some carry-over move up on the kill for today when that report comes out on Monday.

With their higher bids, packers purchased 94.4% of the daily moving average purchases of total hogs and 94.9% on the index hogs. Packers tend to purchase larger numbers of hogs on Fridays. If they are wanting a large purchase today, I ask myself, "Will they have to shell out big bucks again today to get them?"

I piled another QQQ pig on my boat near the opening. Will add more if they dip and they may because oft times on a Friday near the close hogs often make a big move as traders even up their books for the weekend. I doubt that there will be a big move up. The "Gap" is too large for that.

I have been expecting the ASF problem in China to drive pork prices Sky-Hi but I never thought it would occur in 2019. My thoughts were summer of 2020.

Last year from this date until the QQQs went to cash settlement the CME LEAN HOG INDEX shed -19.19 points, in 2017 it shed -5.46 and -8.62 in 2016. This year "The Market" is saying the index will JUMP +8.60 between now and when the QQQs go to cash settlement. What a difference a year can make in the hog market.

"In the hog market you can always expect the unexpected!" Long Bear (may he R.I.P.)

Best wishes,

Doc