7/17/19 was up +1.02 to 72.05. The QQQs settled premium to the component by +10.55. The model calculates that the component will need to gain an average of +0.55 per day to close that "Gap"

The 6-day moving average carcass weight eased to 210.43#. That is +3.15# yhr/yr. Index hogs eased to 210.29#. Packer hogs are lighter than non-packer hogs by -0.09#. Packers have become much more current in their shipments.

"The Market" is now projecting that the seasonality low for this year was hit on 7/15/19 when the CME Lean Hog Index dipped to 70.62. That will be the earliest that the seasonality trough has shown up for a long, long time. On average it happens about the time that the ZZZs go to cash settlement. Last year it was also early when the Index dipped to 45.30 on 9/3/18.

Best wishes,

Doc