6/17/19 was up +0.13 to 79.34. It looks like the NNNs settled premium to the component by +2.14. The kill is coming in very large this week at +9.77% over the same period last week and cutouts dipped by 1.82 today. It is possible that the retailers have their cases filled for the Independence Day holiday and packers are still killing a boat load of hogs. It is looking more and more like the USDA missed on their hog count on 3/1/19.
The six-day moving average carcass weight eased to 213.92#. That is +4.66# yr/yr. Index hogs were also a bit lighter at 213.63#. Both packer and non-packer hogs were lighter by about 3/4#. Sometime when carcass weights dip it indicates that hogs are being pulled forward and the supply of market ready hogs is declining. So far there is no hint that a shortage of hogs is developing in the U.S. Actually the numbers are pointing to more hogs than the USDA reported in the last H&P Report.
So we wait and watch and worry.
Best wishes,
Doc