6/13/19 was down -0.25 to 79.34. The MMMs settled premium to the component by +0.04.

The six-day moving average carcass weight was steady at 214.45#. That is +4.46# yr/yr. Index hogs showed a touch of weakness at 214.14#. Packer hogs were heavier than non-packer hogs by +0.44# Packers are continuing to ship big numbers of hogs. The data suggests packers are more current in their shipments than they were a few months ago.

The kill this week was a monster at +9.90% over the same week last year. The model calculates that the kill since 3/1/19 is 675K more hogs than projected from the H&P Report. The data suggests that the USDA will revise the 3/1/19 report upward by quite a bit. Generally the 6-day moving average carcass weight will drop a couple of pounds between January 1st and June 15th. This year it has only dropped about a pound. Producers seem to have plenty of hogs and they are heavier than one-year ago.

fBut I wonder, "Why would that drive the QQQ2020s down a couple of points??''

In spite of the large pork production today, cutouts posted a +0.20 up tic. That is not much but it is better than another down day.

Best wishes,,

Doc