6/11/19 was, to my surprise, up +0.04 to 79.56. The data seemed to indicate that packers still had some less expensive hogs to process but they actually ran some more expensive hogs yesterday.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight eased to 214.44#. That is +4.27# yr/yr. Index hogs were also a bit lighter at 214.51#. Index hogs are now running a bit heavier than the 6-day moving average carcass weight. Packer hogs are now -0.11# lighter than the non-packer hogs. Packers have really moved their hogs out and that may account for some of the more-than-expected-kill since 3/1/19. With carcass weights running +4.27# heavier yr/yr, it appears there may still be an upward revision coming to the 3/1/19 H&P report.

Today "The Market" is saying that the seasonality high for this year was posted on 5/17/19 when the CME Lean Hog Index climbed to 84.59. There is quite a bit of time left for demand to spike or the kill to slack-off and push the Index to a new high. It is doubtful that the Hog Cycle crest has been posted. I still expect it to be down the road 12 to 24 months from now bug geo-political factors may play a big role in when the crest is hit and how high it will be.

Best wishes,

Doc.