7/3/14 was up $0.65 and the model projects that the CME INDEX component on the 7/3/14 kill will be up between 0.65 and +0.95. The strength in the NNNs this morning has them premium to Thursday's index by 3.04.

The ten-year average change in the index from this date until expiry is -1.24. The maximum gain was in 2005 when it gained 3.16. In 2011 the index dropped 4.22.

My conclusion is that there will be significant volatility due to the uncertainty surrounding the kill rate because of the PED virus and this will create scalping opportunities as we head toward cash settlement.

Best wishes,

dhm