Judy did not mention:
1.- Perhaps a part of the recent sell-off was because of the fact that retailers had their cases full for the Memorial Day holiday and very often there will be a dip in the Index just before and a few days after the Memorial Day holiday. Just before the MMMs expire, packers start gearing up for the Independence Day holiday and the Index will show a bit of strength pushing the NNNs up a notch.

2. Since 3/1/19 packers have killed 28.991 million hogs. From the last H&P report the model projects the kill should have been 28.631 million suggesting that 360K of hogs may have been pulled forward so the available hogs may be getting a bit tight.

3. Since 3/1/19 the six-day moving average carcass weight has fallen from 215.43# to 214.76#. This tends to confirm that hogs have been pulled forward.

4. Smithfield may now be geared up to ship carcasses to China. By using Chinese workers to break the carcasses, they may be able to partially off-set the impact of the tariffs on the cost of American pork to Chinese consumers.

These are a fundamental things and Judy seems to focus on the technical stuff. If you are so inclined and can, please feel free to forward these thought on to Judy.

Best wishes,

D.H.