5/24/19 was down -0.92 to 82.85. The MMMs are now trading premium to the component by +1.39. Another drop in the component like we had today and the "Gap" will nearly be closed. When the MMMs were at their low for the day, they were actually discount to the component. There may be more weakness coming to the index before pressure begins to build as retailers begin refilling their cases for the Independence Day holiday.

The six-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 214.9#. That is +2.12# heavier than this date last year. Index hogs were also a bit heavier at 214.14#. The percentage of packer hogs in the kill mix is dropping slightly. Perhaps packers have reduced their inventory a bit now. Packer hogs are only 1.84# heavier than the non-packer hogs.

I see you got your fills on the ZZZ-pigs, Dewey, and it looks like it was a good move. I have chosen to go a bit further out and buy the summer 2020 futures. Being short the MMMs and long the summer 2020s seems to be working so far today. "The Market" is still pointing to the seasonality high being hit in August about the time that the QQQs go to cash settlement. The next "Crest" to the Hog Cycle is less clear. From the supply side, the dynamics are right to match the last Hog Cycle "Crest" in the 130 to 135 range. If the trade war intensifies and China opts to impose price controls and rationing, the apple cart could be upset and who knows what would happen.

Best wishdes,

Doc