5/15/19 was up +0.41 to 84.40. The MMMs are trading premium to the component by +6.97. On average over the past twelve years the index has gained 2.04 from this date until the MMMs go to cash settlement. The most they gained was 14.43 in 2018. In 2010 the index lost -9.87 from this date until cash settlement. During this 12-year period the index gained in six years and lost in 6-years. The average gain during the "UP" years was +8.54 and the average loss during the "Down" years was -4.46.

And what does this tell us?

It tells us that the price of hogs can make major moves between now and when the MMMs go to cash settlement. These historical numbers do not give the least clue relative to what will happen this year! Rather it is the supply and demand factors here and now that will determine what will happen this year. The possibility exists that a limit down move in the MMMs will occur once retailers fill their cases for the holiday grill and the reality of a 7-point "Gap" catches the attention of the traders. If it happens, it may be transient because packers will start gearing up to fill retailers cases for the Independence Day holiday that will be close on the heels of the MMMs going to cash settlement.

With a scenario like that I wonder, "What's a gurl to do?"

Best wishes,

Doc