5/14/19 was up +0.65 to 83.99. The MMMs settled premium to the component by +7.83. That is a sizeable "Gap" and I think it will take some Chinese demand to close it; otherwise the MMMs are at risk of slipping a little. This is especially true since we saw cutouts dip by -1.83 on Wednesday.

The 6-day moving average carcass weights firmed to 215.23#. That is +1.48# yr/yr. Index hogs were a bit lighter at 213.92#. Packer hogs were heavier than non-packer hogs by +3.00# because packer hogs were heavier by 1/4# while non-packer hogs were unchanged. Packers had become quite current in their shipments but they seem to be falling behind a bit now.

There is still an ASF problem in Asia and we are still in the chase looking for the next Hog Cycle high. If free market forces are allowed to run their course, this Cycle high should match the last high in the 135 area. There are a number of ways that free market forces could be de-railed so there are lots of risks in the hog market today and this will be played out as continued high volatility. Another limit down move today or tomorrow would not surprise me. A limit down today AND tomorrow WOULD surprise me!

Best wishes,
.
Doc