5/14/19 was up +0.70 and the model projects the component on yesterday;s kill will be up between +0.25 and +0.55. The MMMs are now trading premium to the component by +6.98.

With their higher bids, packers purchased 102.1% of the moving average daily purchases of total hogs and 99.8% on the index hogs.

It is not at all unusual during mid-May for packers to be bidding higher for hogs as retailers finish filling their cases for the Memorial Day grilling trade. So I wonder, "How much of the push-up in the component this week is due to the Memorial Day holiday demand and how much is due to Chinese export demand?"

Holiday demand could evaporate very shortly but export demand could build especially if the trade war comes to an end.

The fact remains that Asia has an ASF problem that is going to take a long time to cure. The next "Crest" to the Hog Cycle will most likely be driven by this disease out-break. The last Hog Cycle topped out near 135. This disease epidemic is much more severe so the next "Crest" could match or exceed the last. And so I plan to HODL the far our contracts. looking for a larger than usual move.

Have order working to sell an M/N spread and take profits at -0.625. Not much action in the calendar spreads so far this week.

Best wishes,

Doc